US President Donald Trump revived his "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran. He aims to stop the country's oil exports and prevent Tehran from getting nuclear weapons.

Trump Signs Memorandum Before Meeting Netanyahu

Before meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump signed a memorandum reimposing strict measures on Iran. Notably, these policies mirror those from his first term.

Tough Decision But Open to Talks

Trump called the decision "very tough" and admitted he hesitated. However, he remains open to negotiations with Iranian leaders. “With me, it’s very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. When asked about Iran’s progress, he responded, “They’re too close.” Meanwhile, Iran’s U.N. mission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump Criticizes Biden’s Sanctions Policy

Trump accused former President Joe Biden of weak enforcement of oil-export sanctions. As a result, he claims Iran was able to fund nuclear activities and armed groups in the Middle East. Furthermore, the U.N. nuclear watchdog reported that Iran increased uranium enrichment to 60% purity. This level is close to the 90% needed for weapons. Nevertheless, Iran denies plans to build nuclear weapons.

Trump Orders Maximum Economic Pressure

Trump’s memorandum directs the Treasury Secretary to impose strict sanctions. In addition, it orders measures against those violating restrictions. The memo also tasks the Treasury and State Departments with eliminating Iran’s oil exports. Consequently, following the announcement, U.S. oil prices recovered slightly.

Iran’s Oil Revenues and Rising Exports

Iran earned $53 billion from oil exports in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022. Moreover, OPEC data shows Iran’s oil production in 2024 reached its highest level since 2018. During Trump’s first term, sanctions nearly stopped Iran’s oil exports. However, under Biden, Iran found ways to bypass these restrictions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency believes Saudi Arabia and the UAE can compensate for lost Iranian exports.

China Continues to Buy Iranian Oil

China is Iran’s biggest oil buyer and does not recognize U.S. sanctions. Additionally, both countries use a trade system based on Chinese yuan and intermediaries to avoid U.S. oversight. Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy, said Trump could enforce the 2024 Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) law. Importantly, this law, which Biden did not enforce strictly, allows action against foreign ports processing Iranian oil. A recent decision by China’s Shandong Port Group to block U.S.-sanctioned tankers further shows SHIP’s potential impact.

Push to Reinstate International Sanctions

Trump instructed the U.N. ambassador to work with allies on restoring global sanctions on Iran. Previously, the 2015 nuclear deal had lifted these sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. exited the deal in 2018 under Trump. Consequently, Iran then began reducing its compliance. In 2020, Trump’s team tried to restore sanctions, but the U.N. Security Council rejected the move.

Britain, France, and Germany Consider Sanctions

In December, Britain, France, and Germany warned they might reinstate all international sanctions. Specifically, they aim to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, their ability to act expires on October 18, when a U.N. resolution from 2015 ends. This resolution had lifted sanctions in return for Iran’s nuclear restrictions. Meanwhile, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, condemned any effort to restore sanctions. He called it “unlawful and counterproductive.”

Diplomats Try to Reduce Tensions

European and Iranian diplomats met in November and January to discuss ways to ease tensions. Their talks included Iran’s nuclear program, anticipating a possible return of Trump to office.