Iran is expected to retaliate soon after the United States bombed its key nuclear facilities over the weekend. According to regional experts, the response will not be limited to military action. Instead, it will likely involve a mix of strategies, including cyberattacks, proxy operations, and economic disruption.
US Joins Israel-Iran Conflict
On Saturday, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Though the full damage remains unclear, one thing is certain: the US is now directly involved in the ongoing Israel-Iran war.
Analyst Ellie Geranmayeh, Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg that Iran’s retaliation is “inevitable” and will be “swift and multi-layered based on the extent of damage caused by the US strikes.”
She added, “Iran knows it cannot win this war, but wants to ensure that the US and Israel also lose.”
However, the scale and type of Iran’s response will depend on its remaining military capabilities. Israel has already destroyed several of Iran’s missile launchers and weapons depots in earlier strikes.
Possible Ways Iran Could Retaliate
1. Strikes on US Troops and Bases
The most direct form of retaliation could be attacks on US troops or interests in the Middle East. Iran could carry out these attacks itself or order its regional proxies to act. The United States currently has about 40,000 troops spread across 20 bases in the region. These bases are located in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Syria, and Iraq.
According to Geranmayeh, Iran may carry out a limited and strategic response—perhaps targeting infrastructure rather than personnel. This approach could limit casualties and give both sides a path to step back from further escalation.
Bloomberg analyst Dina Esfandiary said Iran could even signal in advance what it plans to hit. She said this could create a situation where the Trump administration avoids casualties and uses it as a reason to pressure Israel into a ceasefire.
2. Cyberattacks on US Infrastructure
Iran is also likely to use its advanced cyber capabilities as part of its retaliation. In recent years, Iran-linked groups like CyberAv3ngers, believed to be connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have launched several cyberattacks. The US has even placed a $10 million reward on information about the group.
Cyberattacks could target key US infrastructure and government systems, creating disruption without immediate military consequences.
3. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz
Another major option is to disrupt or block the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Around 20% of the world's oil and gas supply passes through it daily. Iran has previously threatened to mine the waterway or attack passing ships using boats and missiles.
If Iran closes the strait, global oil prices could surge. JPMorgan Chase warned that oil prices could hit $120 a barrel, and US inflation could climb to 5%.
4. Attacks on Regional Oil Fields
Although less likely, Iran might also target oil production sites in countries allied with the US, such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE. A similar tactic was used in 2019, when Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, attacked Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields in Saudi Arabia. That strike temporarily cut Saudi oil output in half.
5. Accelerating Nuclear Weapon Development
Finally, Iran might choose a drastic path—developing a nuclear weapon. Even though the US targeted Iran’s major nuclear sites, analysts believe Tehran still retains the ability to enrich uranium and possibly build a bomb.
If Iran feels it has no other way to deter its enemies or secure its interests, it may opt to develop a nuclear deterrent, especially if diplomatic efforts fail.
Iran’s response to the US strikes will depend on its remaining capacity and its desire to avoid full-scale war. However, it has several tools—from cyberattacks to disrupting global oil flows—to apply pressure. While Tehran may not seek to win the war outright, it seems determined to ensure that Washington and Tel Aviv do not emerge unscathed.