With just hours left for vote counting in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, political leaders are waiting anxiously to know the verdict. While the contest between the NDA and INDIA alliances is familiar, this election stands out because of the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

For the first time in many years, the state is witnessing a triangular contest. This has made the outcome far more uncertain and opened the door for new political equations.

Vijay has earlier called the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) his main political rival, while describing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as an ideological opponent. However, if exit polls prove accurate, TVK could end up in a key position — either forming the government or playing a kingmaker role.

Scenario 1: TVK emerges as the largest party

According to projections by Axis My India, TVK could win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-member Assembly. If this happens, Vijay may try to form the government by seeking support from the Indian National Congress and smaller parties.

Congress leader Praveen Chakravarty had met Vijay before the elections, though no agreement was finalised. Notably, Vijay avoided strong criticism of Congress during his campaign. Earlier, his father S.A. Chandrasekhar had also urged Congress to support TVK.

Scenario 2: Possible understanding with AIADMK

If TVK is close to forming the government, Vijay could explore support from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which leads the NDA alliance in the state.

However, this option is complicated. Vijay and his party have repeatedly said they will not align with “communal forces,” which is widely seen as a rejection of the BJP. At the same time, Vijay has shown respect for the AIADMK’s Dravidian roots. During campaigning, he paid tribute to M G Ramachandran, indicating some ideological overlap.

Another possibility is that TVK may take outside support from parties like AIADMK or even BJP without including them in the government. This would help Vijay maintain control while securing enough numbers. However, such arrangements can be unstable, as seen in Delhi in 2013 when Arvind Kejriwal formed a short-lived government with outside support from Congress.

Scenario 3: Supporting DMK in a hung Assembly

If the DMK falls short of a majority and TVK wins a significant number of seats, post-election alliances could become interesting. Even though Vijay has ruled out an alliance with Congress, he may still consider supporting a DMK-led government.

In such a case, TVK could negotiate a role within the government, possibly even a key position like Deputy Chief Minister. Similar situations have occurred in other states, such as Karnataka, where H D Kumaraswamy became Chief Minister with Congress support despite winning fewer seats.

However, Tamil Nadu’s political landscape is different, with DMK being a dominant force. This makes any such arrangement more complex.

Scenario 4: Backing AIADMK despite differences

If the AIADMK does not secure a majority, Vijay may hesitate to support the NDA due to ideological differences. He is also dealing with other pressures, including the upcoming release of his film and an ongoing probe linked to the Karur stampede.

Still, politics often leads to unexpected alliances. In a close contest, Vijay might support the AIADMK to keep M K Stalin out of power, even if it requires revisiting earlier positions.

Scenario 5: Clear majority for TVK

If TVK wins a full majority, it would mark a historic moment. Vijay would then be able to form the government without relying on alliances.

Party leader K.A. Sengottaiyan has expressed strong confidence in such an outcome. Rejecting the possibility of a hung Assembly, he said, “There is no question of a hung Assembly. We are targeting 180 to 200 seats."

High-stakes outcome awaits

With multiple possible outcomes and shifting alliances, the Tamil Nadu election results could significantly reshape the state’s political landscape. Vijay and TVK remain at the centre of this uncertainty, with the potential to either lead the government or play a decisive role in its formation.