A spacecraft launched by the Soviet Union in 1972 is finally returning to Earth. It was originally meant to land on Venus. However, it failed to escape Earth’s orbit. Now, it could crash between May 7 and May 13.

When and Where It Might Fall

According to NASA, the spacecraft named Kosmos 482 will reenter Earth’s atmosphere during that time. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts the fall could happen around May 10. Moreover, he believes that if the main capsule stays intact, it may hit the ground at 150 mph (242 kph).

Meanwhile, the spacecraft could land anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude. That includes areas as far north as London and Edmonton, and as far south as Cape Horn. Still, since most of the planet is covered by water, Langbroek said, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean.”

Some Parts May Survive Reentry

Importantly, NASA said the probe was built to endure Venus’ harsh environment. Therefore, some parts may survive reentry without burning up. Experts think the entry capsule will fall back. It was designed to handle high heat and pressure.

Additionally, Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer, said the spacecraft is in its “final death plunge.” He warned, “There’s a not-trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property, and there’s a small chance − but it’s like one in thousands − that it could hurt someone.”

Is There a Big Risk?

So far, scientists agree that the danger is very low. Langbroek explained, “While not without risk, we should not be too worried.” He added, “The risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.”

Likewise, McDowell told NPR, “There’s a not trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property. And there’s a small chance – but it’s like one in thousands – that it could hurt somebody.”

Meanwhile, space debris expert Marlon Sorge estimates the odds of serious harm at about 1 in 25,000.

What If It Lands on Dry Ground?

If any part of Kosmos 482 lands on solid ground, experts urge people to stay away. Sorge told CNN the old spacecraft may still contain harmful fuel or toxic substances. He warned, “Contact the authorities. Please don’t mess with it.”

Furthermore, Parker Wishik from the Aerospace Corporation said under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, Russia still owns any debris that survives. So, Russia may try to recover the wreckage.

Even so, Wishik said space agencies have reduced uncontrolled reentries in recent years. But the Kosmos 482 incident shows why those efforts must continue.

A Soviet Mission That Failed

Back in 1972, the Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 as part of a Venus exploration program. Initially, the spacecraft reached Earth’s parking orbit. However, a rocket failure stopped it from heading to Venus.

As a result, it broke into four pieces. Two fell and burned up within 48 hours. The other two stayed in orbit. Over the next ten years, most debris returned to Earth. Yet, experts believe the entry capsule, about 3 feet (1 meter) wide, has remained in orbit for 53 years.

Now, after all that time, it's finally falling back toward Earth.