When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials reacted with serious concern. They called the situation in the Middle East “alarming” and “dangerous.”

However, Russian state media quickly highlighted the possible benefits for Moscow. These included a rise in global oil prices, which could bring more money into Russia. Another advantage was that the world’s attention had moved away from Ukraine. A bold headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets read, “Kyiv has been forgotten.”

Moreover, if countries accepted Russia’s offer to mediate the Israel-Iran conflict, the Kremlin could present itself as a major power in the Middle East. It would also try to show itself as a peacemaker, even though it continues its war in Ukraine.

But Risks for Russia Are Rising

Still, the longer Israel continues its military actions, the clearer it becomes that Russia faces growing dangers.

Russian political expert Andrei Kortunov wrote in Kommersant that “The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow.”

He also pointed out that Russia had failed to stop Israel’s large-scale attacks on Iran. “The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership,” he wrote.

Kortunov added that Moscow seemed unwilling to do more than make political statements. “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it's not ready to provide Iran with military assistance,” he noted.

Russia’s Deal with Iran Has Limits

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a major strategic partnership. But this deal does not require Russia to defend Iran militarily.

At the time, Russian leaders promoted the agreement. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Ria Novosti that the deal gave “special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence.”

Yet now, as the conflict worsens, it’s clear this partnership has limits.

Fears of Losing Influence in the Middle East

Russia already lost one major ally in the region—Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. After Assad was removed from power in December, Russia offered him asylum.

Now, Russia fears the same could happen in Iran. If Iran sees regime change, Moscow could lose yet another strategic partner. That concern is weighing heavily on Russian leaders.

In another report on Tuesday, Moskovsky Komsomolets warned: “In global politics right now, massive changes are taking place in real time which will affect life in our country, either directly or indirectly.”

Putin Faces Questions at Economic Forum

This week, President Putin is in St. Petersburg for the annual International Economic Forum. The event was once called “Russia’s Davos,” but that title no longer fits.

Western CEOs have largely stayed away, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, Russian officials claim that more than 140 countries and regions will take part in the forum this year.

The Kremlin will likely use the event to argue that attempts to isolate Russia have failed. Though it’s an economic gathering, politics will play a big role.

Observers expect Putin to comment on both the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine.