US President Donald Trump has created fresh hurdles in the growing trade relationship between India and the United States. He has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports and threatened additional penalties over India’s trade ties with Russia. These steps come even as the long-awaited bilateral trade deal remains stuck. Trump’s actions have caused concern in New Delhi and could undo years of diplomatic progress.

Trump Targets India with New Trade Pressure

On Wednesday, Trump announced his stance on Truth Social, outlining a two-fold attack on India.

First, he cited the trade deficit with India as the reason to impose the 25% import duty. Second, he accused India of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine by purchasing large quantities of Russian energy. He warned of more penalties from August 1.

Trump stated, “India remains the largest buyer of Russian energy along with China at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine.”

Washington No Longer Feels Like a Trusted Partner

India faces growing threats from a Pakistan-China alliance. At such a time, New Delhi expects stable ties with Washington. But Trump’s recent moves suggest otherwise.

Analysts say he has shaken the very foundation of India-US relations, built carefully over decades. Mutual respect was key to this relationship — something Trump now appears to ignore.

Since taking office for a second term, Trump has challenged India's long-standing positions. He has:

• Interfered in the Kashmir issue

• Compared India with Pakistan

• Backed jihadist groups in the region

• Imposed new tariffs

• Threatened more sanctions over Russian trade

Expert View: Mutual Trust Is Fading

According to Prof. Swasti Rao, a geopolitics expert at Jindal School of International Affairs, Trump is not interested in what India—or any other country—wants. She said, “This is why he has ignored all the sensibilities of India whether it is the Kashmir issue, the India-Pakistan conflict, or the issue of agriculture and dairy in trade talks."

Rao added that Trump’s approach is “my way or the highway,” which has led to a serious trust deficit in ties. “He has complicated the India-US relationship that had been on an upward trajectory not just bilaterally but also multilaterally look at the progress with Quad and IMEC in the past few years. Now, instead of taking the relationship forward, the focus will be on containing the fallout.”

Contrast with Biden’s Approach

Under Joe Biden, US officials raised concerns about India’s Russian oil purchases or human rights. However, those issues rarely slowed down the partnership.

Instead, Biden helped strengthen ties:

• He worked closely with Prime Minister Modi to boost the Quad alliance to counter China.

• He supported the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

• He pushed the I2U2 group, linking India, Israel, the UAE, and the US.

• Bilateral ties in defence, intelligence, science, and other areas expanded.

Biden followed the positive trend set by Obama, Bush, and Clinton. But Trump now risks undoing all of that progress, say observers. “There has been a misreading of Trump in New Delhi. He was not the one-stop solution that many thought he would be. There is no easy way to manage him,” Rao said.

What Can India Do Now?

India cannot handle Trump using strategies that worked for other nations. It cannot offer military bases or natural resources or aim to please him with awards. Nor can it take the humorous and flattering route adopted by NATO chief Mark Rutte.

Instead, India needs a unique, balanced approach. “India has been non-confrontational so far and rightly so. The only way to steer the India-US relationship is to not be confrontational, manage President Trump’s ego, smoothen any wrinkles in the relations quietly, and stabilise other theatres like Pakistan and China,” said Rao. She added that India must act smart because no country can manage too many crises at once.

Is There Still Hope for a Deal?

According to Rao, nothing is final with Trump. “The best-case scenario will be that India gets a trade deal and tariff comes down and India does not get any secondary tariffs or sanctions over the Russian war on Ukraine.” But the worst-case? The 25% tariffs stay, and India faces extra penalties under the Graham-Blumenthal proposal. In the short term, India should focus on avoiding that outcome.