Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Mexico City this week carries high stakes for both countries. When he meets President Claudia Sheinbaum, the optics will matter as much as the outcomes. The two leaders must show unity while avoiding any move that might look like an attempt to sideline the United States — especially with Donald Trump escalating his tariff policies.

Canadian officials hope to promote what they call a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Mexico. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum’s team remains cautious about signaling that the two nations are “ganging up” on Washington.

This reflects a long-standing challenge in North American diplomacy. Both Canada and Mexico depend heavily on the US for trade and investment. At the same time, they want to diversify their economic ties to shield themselves from America’s unpredictable policies. The trick is to do so without provoking a backlash from Washington.

A History of Neglect

For years, Canada and Mexico largely treated each other as secondary partners. Former Canadian ambassador to Mexico, Graeme Clark, noted that Ottawa often underestimated the importance of building strong relations with Mexico. Instead, Canada mostly reacted to Washington’s policies and tariffs.

Clark described this as a recurring blind spot, saying that Ottawa’s failure to engage deeply with Mexico left the relationship underdeveloped.

Trade numbers reflect this imbalance. Last year, trade between the two nations hit C$56 billion, but Canadian exports accounted for only C$9 billion, while imports from Mexico reached C$47 billion.

Canadian companies have invested about C$50 billion in Mexico, mainly in the energy and mining sectors. Despite these ties, Mexico is often seen in Canada through stereotypes, such as beaches and tourism. Clark criticized this as a “two-dimensional caricature” that prevents serious policy discussions.

Carney’s Visit Breaks Tradition

Carney’s trip is notable because Canadian prime ministers typically meet Mexican leaders only during the “Three Amigos” Summit with the US. This stand-alone visit signals that Mexico is now a priority for Ottawa.

Earlier this year, Carney invited Sheinbaum to the G7 Summit in Alberta, marking the first time a Mexican president attended a Canadian-hosted summit since Felipe Calderon addressed Parliament in 2010.

Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, never visited Canada during his six years in office. Carney’s outreach aims to rebuild trust after a tense period when Canadian leaders suggested a direct trade deal with the US — a move Mexico viewed as a betrayal.

Balancing Relations with Washington

A key challenge for both countries is avoiding the appearance of forming an anti-US bloc. Sheinbaum is careful to prevent that impression. Canadian officials, however, seem more confident that deepening ties with Mexico won’t significantly upset Washington.

One senior Canadian official told Politico, “You can’t gang up on the United States.”

Mexico still remembers when it kept Canada involved during the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) talks, even when the US considered a separate deal. After Trump’s reelection, Canadian leaders hinted at pursuing a US-only trade pact, causing unease in Mexico City.

Carney’s visit is partly aimed at reassuring Sheinbaum that Canada values the trilateral relationship and seeks a stronger bilateral partnership within it.

Shared Economic Struggles

The visit comes at a time when both countries face economic pain from Trump’s tariffs. Canada’s economy shrank in the last quarter due to falling exports and reduced business investment. Industries like steel, aluminum, autos, and forestry are under intense pressure from Section 232 tariffs.

Mexico secured a 90-day tariff extension from Trump that Canada did not receive, fueling frustration in Ottawa.

While Carney faces mounting political pressure at home, Sheinbaum appears more comfortable navigating Trump’s tactics. Mexico has long dealt with aggressive US rhetoric and benefits from its strong position in the global auto industry and competitive labor costs.

Building New Trade Routes

Carney and Sheinbaum are expected to discuss infrastructure projects that would allow trade to flow directly between their countries, reducing reliance on US-controlled supply chains.

Canadian officials are considering new port facilities in Mexico to support this strategy.

The talks will also cover organized crime issues, including drug trafficking, firearms smuggling, and human trafficking — problems that Trump has often cited to justify his tariffs.

Energy and Industrial Policy Alignment

Energy cooperation will be another focus. Canadian company TC Energy recently completed a 440-mile Southeast Gateway natural gas pipeline in southern Mexico, which Sheinbaum’s government hailed as a major economic boost.

For Carney, such projects align with his “major projects” initiative, which seeks to create jobs and strengthen infrastructure.

Both leaders also share similar visions for economic growth. Sheinbaum’s “Plan Mexico” and Carney’s push to reduce dependence on an “unreliable” America emphasize diversifying economies, boosting domestic manufacturing, and building clean energy and critical mineral supply chains.

Looking Ahead to USMCA

The meeting also serves as preparation for the upcoming USMCA renegotiation. No major announcements are expected during this visit. Instead, it aims to rebuild trust and set the stage for future talks with Washington.

Former Canadian trade minister Mary Ng admitted that during Trump’s first term, Canada and Mexico treated their relationship as merely functional, missing opportunities for deeper cooperation.

A Careful Balancing Act

The symbolism of this meeting is significant. Carney’s decision to visit Mexico outside the usual trilateral format highlights a shift in priorities.

As Carney and Sheinbaum shake hands, both must strike a delicate balance — strengthening their economic resilience and supply chains while avoiding moves that might provoke Trump.

The real test will be whether Canada and Mexico can deepen their partnership without triggering the very storm they are trying to withstand.