The administration of Donald Trump is preparing to announce criminal charges against former Cuban president Raul Castro next Wednesday. As a result, tensions between Washington and Havana could rise sharply in the coming days.

According to a US Justice Department official, federal prosecutors plan to unseal an indictment against the 94-year-old former Cuban leader in Miami on May 20. The case relates to the 1996 shooting down of planes operated by a Cuban exile group.

Charges Linked to 1996 Plane Shootdown

The planned charges stem from a 1996 incident in which Cuban fighter jets destroyed aircraft flown by the exile organisation Brothers to the Rescue. The attack killed four people and triggered one of the biggest diplomatic crises between the United States and Cuba in recent decades.

At the time, Raul Castro served as Cuba’s defence minister. Meanwhile, Cuban authorities argued that the planes had violated Cuban airspace and described the strike as a lawful defensive action.

However, the United States strongly condemned the attack and later imposed sanctions on Cuba. Although US prosecutors charged three Cuban military officers in 2003, Cuba never extradited them.

In addition, prosecutors in Miami are expected to hold a memorial event for the victims on the same day the indictment could become public. Before authorities can formally proceed, a grand jury must first approve the indictment.

Raul Castro Remains a Powerful Symbol in Cuba

Raul Castro is the younger brother of late Cuban revolutionary Fidel Castro, who ruled Cuba for decades and remained one of America’s strongest geopolitical rivals during the Cold War.

Later, Raul Castro succeeded his brother and served as Cuba’s president until 2018. He then handed over leadership of the Communist Party in 2021. Even after stepping down from office, Raul Castro has continued to hold influence in Cuban politics and remains a major symbol of the country’s communist leadership.

Trump Administration Tightens Pressure on Cuba

Meanwhile, relations between the United States and Cuba have continued to deteriorate under Trump’s administration.

Washington has repeatedly accused Cuba’s communist government of corruption and economic mismanagement. At the same time, the administration has openly supported political change on the island.

Furthermore, Trump has increased economic pressure by threatening sanctions on countries that continue supplying fuel to Cuba. Consequently, the measures have reportedly worsened fuel shortages and power outages across the country.

In addition, CIA chief John Ratcliffe recently visited Havana and reportedly delivered a direct message from Trump.

According to reports, Ratcliffe told Cuban officials that the United States would only engage with Havana on economic and security matters if the Cuban government introduced “fundamental changes.”

Comparisons Emerge With Maduro Case

At the same time, analysts have compared the possible case against Raul Castro with earlier legal action against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

Previously, the Trump administration used criminal charges against Maduro as part of the justification for a January operation that brought him to the United States to face trial. Maduro has denied the allegations and pleaded not guilty.

Moreover, Trump intensified speculation in March when he warned that Cuba “is next” after Venezuela.

Miami Prosecutor Oversees Sensitive Investigations

The case is reportedly being handled by Miami’s top federal prosecutor Jason Reding Quiñones, a close Trump ally.

At the same time, Quiñones is also overseeing investigations involving former CIA Director John Brennan as part of wider efforts examining earlier investigations linked to Trump.

Overall, the planned indictment marks a major escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against Cuba and could further damage already strained relations between the two countries.