Iceland has rejected a proposal to restart negotiations on joining the European Union, dealing a major blow to Brussels’ efforts to bring the wealthy North Atlantic nation into the bloc.

In Saturday’s referendum, 52.8 per cent of Icelandic voters opposed reopening EU membership talks, while 47.2 per cent supported the proposal. The final figures were released by Iceland’s public broadcaster RUV.

The outcome is likely to put the country’s EU membership debate on hold until at least 2028. Although the referendum was not legally binding, Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir’s government had made it clear that it would respect the decision of voters.

Iceland votes against restarting EU talks

The referendum focused on whether Iceland should resume negotiations over EU membership. The country first applied to join the bloc after its financial crisis in 2009. The crisis caused severe damage to Iceland’s economy and pushed the government at the time to consider closer integration with Europe.

However, the accession process was suspended in 2013 after a Eurosceptic government came to power. Since then, the question of EU membership has remained politically sensitive. Frostadottir’s Social Democratic-led government later backed the idea of reopening negotiations. Growing geopolitical uncertainty and changes in Europe’s security environment had renewed discussions about Iceland’s future relationship with the EU.

The government argued that restarting talks would allow Icelanders to understand what membership would mean before making a final decision. However, voters ultimately rejected the proposal. Frostadottir had supported a “Yes” vote during the campaign. After casting her ballot, she acknowledged that the country would continue to function regardless of the result. “We will be fine also if it's a ‘No’,” she said after casting her ballot.

The prime minister had also promised that a rejection would prevent the EU membership issue from returning to the political agenda during her current term, which runs until 2028.

Iceland already has close ties with the EU

Despite remaining outside the European Union, Iceland already has strong economic and political links with the bloc. The country is a member of the European Economic Area, which gives it access to the EU’s single market. Iceland is also part of the Schengen free-movement area.

These arrangements will not be affected by the referendum result. Therefore, Iceland will continue to maintain close economic and travel links with EU member states even though voters have rejected restarting accession negotiations.

Fishing remains a major concern

The fishing industry played an important role in the opposition to EU membership. Fishing is not only an important part of Iceland’s economy but is also closely connected to the country’s national identity. Iceland has traditionally placed strong importance on controlling its own fishing waters and marine resources.

Many people in the industry fear that EU membership could reduce Iceland’s control over its fisheries. According to information cited by AFP, about 90 per cent of companies in Iceland’s fishing sector opposed EU membership. This issue has been one of the biggest obstacles to Iceland joining the bloc.

The European Union had attempted to reassure Icelandic voters before the referendum. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Brussels understood that Iceland had special circumstances, particularly in areas such as fisheries and agriculture. Kos also indicated that the EU believed compromises could be reached during negotiations. However, those assurances were not enough to convince a majority of voters to support restarting the process.

Result is a setback for Brussels

The referendum result represents more than a setback for Iceland’s government. It also creates difficulties for the EU’s broader enlargement ambitions. Brussels had viewed Iceland as a potential example of how the bloc could expand to another wealthy and highly developed European country.

A successful Icelandic accession process could also have helped generate momentum for EU enlargement involving other candidate countries, including Montenegro. Iceland’s strategic location was another reason the country was important to the EU.

The North Atlantic nation sits close to the Arctic region, an area that has become increasingly important because of changing security, economic and geopolitical interests. Iceland joining the EU could have strengthened the bloc’s presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic.

It could also have influenced the debate in Norway, another wealthy Nordic country that has remained outside the European Union despite maintaining close relations with the bloc.

Geopolitical tensions shaped the debate

The referendum came at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty. Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the security environment across Europe and increased attention on the strategic importance of the North Atlantic and Arctic regions.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s interest in Greenland has added another layer to the geopolitical debate surrounding the Arctic. These developments had renewed discussions about Iceland’s position in Europe and its role in international affairs.

Supporters of reopening EU talks had argued that the changing global environment made it important for Iceland to reassess its relationship with the bloc. However, the referendum result showed that a majority of Icelandic voters were not ready to restart the accession process.

What happens to Iceland’s EU application

The government must now decide how to handle Iceland’s existing application to join the European Union. The administration had previously indicated that Parliament could decide whether Iceland should formally withdraw its EU application after a “No” vote. For now, however, the referendum has effectively put the membership debate on hold.

With Frostadottir’s government committed to respecting the result and the prime minister having said the issue would not return to the political agenda during her term, Iceland’s EU membership ambitions are unlikely to receive major political attention before 2028.