The US intelligence community is analysing how Iran might react if US President Donald Trump unilaterally announces victory in the ongoing war, according to Reuters. This review comes after senior officials asked agencies to evaluate the risks of such a move.

The main objective is to understand what could happen if Trump decides to withdraw from the West Asia conflict without signing any formal peace deal.

Political Pressure Builds Ahead of Elections

This development comes at a sensitive time for the Trump administration. Officials are worried about the political impact of the war, especially with midterm elections approaching. Current projections suggest that Republicans could face losses.

At the same time, public support for the war remains very low. A Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed that only 26 per cent of Americans believe the war has been worth its cost.

Economic Strain Adds to Urgency

Rising petrol prices and a worsening economic situation have increased pressure on the administration. Fuel costs have reached their highest levels in years, adding to public dissatisfaction.

Because of this, Trump has been looking for a way to exit the conflict while saving political face, even if the original goals of the war are not fully achieved.

Talks Stalled as Positions Harden

Efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiations have not progressed. Both sides have taken firm positions, and attempts to find common ground have so far failed.

This deadlock has made it harder for the US to find a smooth exit strategy.

Iran May See Withdrawal as Its Victory

Earlier assessments by US intelligence suggested that if Trump declares victory and begins pulling out troops and military assets, Iran would likely interpret this as a win for itself.

Such a scenario could mirror earlier Iran-Israel confrontations before the 12-Day War, when both sides launched initial attacks but later stepped back and claimed victory.

Continued Presence Could Signal Strategy, Not Peace

However, the situation could change if Trump declares victory but keeps US forces in the region. In that case, Iran may view the move as a negotiation tactic rather than a real end to the conflict, according to Reuters.