The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) introduced the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) in Delhi on May 26. This system will make weather forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) more precise.

Importantly, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) developed this new system. From this monsoon season, IMD will begin using it.

Notably, the launch came as Kerala and Mumbai were hit by early and heavy rains.

High-Resolution Weather Models

BFS uses highly detailed weather models.

• First, the global model works at a 12-kilometre resolution.

• Next, the regional model focuses on India at a 2-kilometre resolution.

As a result, this system can better predict severe weather like heavy rain or cyclones.

Advanced Data Integration

Moreover, BFS uses advanced technology. It collects data from the land, sea, ice, and air.

It also uses dynamic models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM). Therefore, it can predict weather conditions for up to 10 days in advance.

Because of this, it provides accurate information on cyclones, heatwaves, cold waves, and air pollution.

Focus on Weather Impact

Unlike old systems, BFS focuses on what the weather will do, not just what it will be.

For example, it can alert people about flood threats or damage to crops.

Additionally, it supports key areas like:

• Farming and irrigation

• Emergency response and disaster planning

• Air and sea navigation

• City planning and health safety

Stronger Local Forecasting Power

Dr. Suryachandra Rao, Director of IITM, explained, “The new BFS has a resolution of 6 km at the tropics and around 7-8 km resolution at the poles. The current range of our system is only around 12 km. This will remarkably improve our forecasting accuracy.”

In comparison, Western systems like those in the US and Europe have a resolution of 9 to 14 km. Hence, India’s system is more detailed.

Union Minister Jitendra Singh called BFS a “first-of-its-kind, state-of-the-art” system. On X, he said the system will help with “monsoon tracking, aviation, cyclone and disaster management, agriculture, waterways, defence, flood forecasting.” Furthermore, it will serve “India’s panchayat level requirements.”

Tropical Forecasting Gets a Boost

For the first time, Indian scientists developed a special version of the GFS model using the “triangular-cubic-octahedral” (Tco) grid.

This grid allows BFS to work at a 6.5 km resolution in the tropics, which are known for unpredictable weather.

Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary of MoES, said, “The tropical region is a chaotic region for weather. The change in weather patterns is unpredictable and higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes.”

He also said, “Earlier, we used to issue one forecast for four villages. The BFS will enable us to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages.”

Supercomputer ‘Arka’ Powers the System

This breakthrough happened after IITM installed a new supercomputer named Arka last year.

Arka has a speed of 11.77 petaflops and storage of 33 petabytes. In contrast, the older supercomputer ‘Pratyush’ needed up to 10 hours to run forecasts.

However, as Mukhopadhyay told PTI, “Arka performs the same data-crunching within four hours.

Local Forecasts to Improve Nationwide

Furthermore, BFS uses information from 40 Doppler radars placed across India.

According to MoES, they plan to increase the number of these radars to 100. When that happens, IMD will be able to issue two-hour forecasts—also known as nowcasts—across the country.

Why BFS Matters

This upgrade is critical, especially as India faces more frequent extreme weather due to climate change.

BFS has been in trial use since 2022. During testing, it improved heavy rain prediction by 30% and improved forecasts in core monsoon zones by 64%.

It also performed better in predicting cyclone paths and intensity.

Dr. Ravichandran emphasized, “This is a pretty big improvement, but we will not stop at that. Our efforts will be to continuously better our capabilities.”