The United States has reportedly warned Poland that Russia could stage a limited military provocation on Polish territory in the coming months as the war in Ukraine continues without any sign of ending.

According to The Telegraph, US officials shared intelligence with Poland about possible Russian plans to test NATO's response without triggering a full-scale war. The report cited sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki.

The warning comes as fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues to intensify, increasing concerns about security along NATO's eastern border.

US Shares Intelligence With Poland

The report said Russia could launch limited military actions against Poland to raise tensions while avoiding direct conflict with NATO. Possible scenarios include missile or drone strikes on critical infrastructure, simulated air attacks, or a limited ground incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops.

The report added that Russia could later claim the incident happened by mistake. Moscow might say its troops crossed the border because of a GPS error or entered Poland to recover a damaged helicopter. Such explanations could help Russia avoid responsibility while testing NATO's reaction.

Russia May Aim to Pressure the West

The report said Russia's main goal would be to test NATO's resolve without starting a wider war. Moscow knows it cannot fight the NATO alliance directly. Instead, it could push for negotiations after a limited operation. According to the report, Russia may expect the United States to persuade Poland not to respond with force against Russian or Belarusian troops.

Moscow could also demand an end to Western military support for Ukraine in exchange for withdrawing its forces from Polish territory. The report added that Russia could even try to blame Ukraine for any attack on Poland to create divisions among Western allies.

Poland Prepares for Any Threat

A source close to President Karol Nawrocki said the United States regularly shares intelligence with Poland about possible Russian threats against NATO's eastern flank. The report said Russia could launch a ground operation from Belarus or from its Kaliningrad region, both of which border Poland.

A senior official from Poland's Defence Ministry told Polish news outlet Onet that Warsaw has already conducted military exercises for such situations. The exercises showed that any attack on Poland would trigger a powerful NATO response, including strikes on military targets in Kaliningrad.

Russia and Ukraine Continue Deadly Attacks

The warning comes as Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange heavy attacks. Ukraine launched fresh strikes on Russia and Russian-controlled territory, killing at least 10 people. Russian attacks also killed at least five people.

The latest fighting followed one of Russia's largest drone and missile attacks on Kyiv. The strike killed at least 30 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said rescue teams were still searching for survivors. He added that 10 people remained missing.

NATO Plans Fresh Military Aid

NATO's European members and Canada are preparing to increase military support for Ukraine. According to reports, they plan to pledge €70 billion (around $80 billion) in military aid for this year and next during the alliance's summit in Turkey next week.

The commitment would reinforce support for Kyiv after US President Donald Trump decided to stop Washington's military assistance to Ukraine. The reported US warning reflects growing concern that Russia could try to test NATO's unity by carrying out a limited operation against Poland while avoiding a direct confrontation with the military alliance.