Pakistan’s foreign policy will face significant changes with Donald Trump’s return to power. The country now faces a US administration that has been both a partner and a rival in the past. This time, however, the relationship may be even more unpredictable.

Shifting Priorities

After the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, US-Pakistan relations underwent a transformation. With Trump back in office, Pakistan will likely need to make further adjustments. Under Biden, the relationship focused on regional stability and counterterrorism, but it never regained the prominence it once had. As Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, explained, this period was one of “benign disengagement,” where Pakistan lost its central role in US foreign policy. Consequently, Pakistan must now redefine its position on the global stage.

The Trump Factor

Trump’s return could make the US-Pakistan relationship more unpredictable. His “America First” policy prioritizes US interests over global cooperation, which could complicate Pakistan’s diplomatic decisions. Without a structured and cooperative relationship, Pakistan might have to make more concessions with little diplomatic gain. This disengagement may also reduce Pakistan’s ability to influence US policies on counterterrorism and South Asian security. Furthermore, Trump’s foreign policy has been known for unpredictability, relying on personal diplomacy rather than multilateral approaches. As a result, Pakistan’s ties with the US could depend more on the personal connections between leaders than on formal diplomatic channels. During Trump’s first term, he worked closely with Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister at the time. However, with Trump back in power, Pakistan might find itself adjusting to his unpredictable decisions.

Balancing US and China

Another challenge Pakistan faces is balancing its ties with both the US and China. While traditionally aligned with the US, Pakistan’s relationship with China has strengthened, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The growing rivalry between the US and China, especially in trade and technology, complicates Pakistan’s position. As a result, Pakistan must carefully manage tensions between the two superpowers without becoming entangled in their conflict. If the US adopts a more aggressive foreign policy towards China, it could directly impact Pakistan, particularly concerning the future of CPEC. Although Pakistan’s relationship with China is vital for its economic growth and infrastructure development, there are risks involved in becoming too closely aligned with Beijing, especially if the US imposes sanctions or trade restrictions in response to Pakistan’s ties with China.

The India Factor

In addition to the US-China dynamic, Pakistan must contend with the growing strategic partnership between India and the US. Over the past decade, India-US relations have deepened, marked by increased defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint military exercises. This trend is expected to continue under Trump, with India playing a central role in the US strategy to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. For Pakistan, this strengthened relationship between India and the US presents a major challenge. The US is likely to pressure Pakistan to align more closely with India on issues such as counterterrorism and countering China’s influence in the region.

Opportunities and Challenges

Pakistan’s foreign policy under Trump’s second administration will present both challenges and opportunities. One possibility is that Pakistan could position itself as a bridge between the US and China, helping to avoid tensions with either side. By strengthening economic ties with both countries, Pakistan can ensure it remains relevant on the global stage. Furthermore, Pakistan may leverage its relationships with countries like Iran, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan to demonstrate its diplomatic influence amid global power struggles.

The Road Ahead

Trump’s return marks a new chapter in US-Pakistan relations, bringing both risks and opportunities. Pakistan faces significant challenges in shaping its foreign policy in this changing geopolitical landscape. However, there are also opportunities for strategic engagement with both the US and China. Ultimately, Pakistan’s success in navigating these shifting dynamics will determine its place in the global order.